Today's video RMBrenna PSS Collective Brands (RM Brenna)

via @theCMZ

Late Night S&P500 Update (SPX)

As you can see the by program which launched us off 1178 held up until all real buyers were gone. *by real buyers i mean humans/speculators not the primary dealers ramping markets when volume is lowest and there is zero catalyst the greater market can see.

Transparency in this market is getting worse, though information flow is getting better. Seems as if the two are canceling themselves out, but maybe not. As information flows between traders again like in the past the market will become much easier to trade because there will be less need for algo trading to keep the market seemingly alive and well. That being said tomorrow i was previously expecting an up day though china is currently off over 3% with the dollar above the 81 level again.

Late Day S&P Market Update (SPX)

ES_F 1 min 

Here we are sitting just like i mentioned on Friday, as we had the after hours drop, as well as what we saw happen after the close on Wednesday should be a on your mind as well. These were all signals weakness is still in the market, granted today i feel we might be a bit extended on the downside, which means we are now over 50 handles off the highs we put in a few weeks ago up at 1224ish.

This afternoon we chopped around the the 1178-1176 level like we were preparing for a chef salad, though low and behold one hell of a buy program shot the SPOOZ straight up off 1178 to 1187 like it was nothing.. Clearly taking out stops on the way up. Though i guess there is a rumor of a GIANT bailout which spurred the 10 handle over 1% in less then 30 minutes program.

The dollar still has stayed relatively strong considering the equities buying, still up .45c and still above the 80 support level. Spot gold on the other hand has been pushing the 1370 level, looks like the next push she will break through and send the dollar low and equities even higher...

Rangebound Trading Weighed Down by Europe (Top Step)

Mr. Top Step.com

Friday After Hours S&P500 Dump Foreshadowing Monday? (SPX)

ES_F 1 min last 30 min trading friday

Foreshadowing something to come Monday is what i am thinking... We have the Korean peninsula is about to go nuclear with China stepping in (could be a good thing). Ireland is protesting a bailout, Portugal and Greece are still fucked and all the major hedge funds are being subpoenaed.. These guys are gonnna cash the FUCK OUT if they think more regulators are gonna be up their asses...... And the Euro is still getting demolished. DOLLAR STILL UP GOLD UP all fear FEAR ... All these fears seems to be culminating into an event just as the peak of bullishness over the past year has come to a tipping point.

Notice my previous charts (search my blog on left) on pivot points, they are real and psychological levels. The way the stock market moves is not arbitrary and believe it or not has a lot more to do with the emotion of the crowd somehow influencing macro events around the world which in turn affect asset prices..

Commodities have been on fire, though how far can they go

Uncle Willie Arrested on Pot Charges (MJNA)

This arrest comes as to no surprise at least to me, considering how open he is about his use of the "drug"...Though Willie did have quiet a bit of a personal "stash" on him 6 oz's lol... Willie is a good guy i like him, sucks to be arrested at that age for this considering the headlines.... And i am not helping.. Though that guy has gone from broke to rich to broke and now back on his feet over the years...

Here is my favorite Willie tune.... enjoy

Online Shopping up 16%... Interesting..... Malls suck (SPG)

Seems like as predicted more people are shopping online from their homes as more and more of the crazies go for the deals on black friday.. seems like this trend will keep growing.... remember we still have cyber monday, those numbers will be interesting..good for AMZN...
(AP writes ) Shoppers who skipped the crowds on Black Friday gave online merchants a 16 percent spike in revenue, according to data released Saturday. That's spurring optimism for spending the rest of season.

That increase came partly from shoppers who spent more per online purchase during the traditional opening day of the holiday shopping season, according to Web research company Coremetrics. The average order rose to $190.80. That's a 12 percent increase over $170.19 on the same day last year.

The solid increase adds to a 33 percent online spending spike on Thanksgiving day, and signs of bigger-than-expected crowds in stores."

Mid Day S&P Market Update (SPX)

ES_F 1 min

Fairly quiet day so far, not much news just the same old stuff we have been hearing out of Europe and Ireland. Though the new elephant in the room is N. Korea playing war games. That could send gold prices and dollar prices higher out of fear...

Today the S&Ps are down a bit off about .61% or down 7.5 handles to 1189, clearly post turkey day trading we were right about, it would be a down day. This market has been throwing us curve balls the last two years, this is another one.. Expect the unexpected. The level i am watching in the ES_F is 1189 has support is here though a seller is present. Upside 1191 first resistance followed by 1200 again. 1193 tested and failed with 1189 again finding support. so keep these two levels in mind... The globex low this morning was 1182.50. so that is the lower line in the sand.

Follow The Leader: China Raises Commodity Margins As Well

China followed the CME with raising commodity margin maint to help stem the parabolic rise of commodity prices in their markets. i Guess it is a little bit 2 late if you ask me because the damage is done, the damage could be ever worse if North Korea does go to war.

(DowJones Writes) "The Dalian Commodities Exchange will raise the required margins for soybean, soymeal, soyoil, palm oil, corn, linear low-density polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride contracts to 10%, effective Monday, the bourse said in a statement on its website Friday.

The daily limit for price movements will be increased to 6%, it said.

Thanksgiving Links & Consumer Merriness????? (SPY)

Happy holiday's to those who celebrate this day of dead birds and gluttony... I had to get that out sorry hahah.. A headline which caught my eye this morning was the kind of bullshit I would expect to see the day before every American left with a job heads to Wall-Mart to buy
 a flat screen TV.
The headline reads
"Economic data reveal a hint of consumer merriness"

A quote of the article which contradicts the entire headline 

"Still, with businesses spending less on manufactured goods and new-home sales near their lowest level in 47 years, consumers alone might not be able to invigorate the economy and drive down unemployment."


SO everyone go out and buy those flat screens on credit and buy all those crap from ANF and the summer sausage kiosk in the mall!..


LINKS:
On Thanksgiving, save some room for sex

Sharp holiday price drops seen for flat-panel TVs

Retailers hope holiday shoppers ready to trade up

European markets diverge on debt crisis concerns

North threatens additional attacks

Thanksgiving S&P Futures Update (SPX)

Happy thanks giving all you genetically modified bird eaters.. I only eat the legs of the bird anyway. The turkey day rally i mentioned yesterday really came into play today didnt it? up over 1.45% just about retracing yesterdays entire down day of 1.5%. Remember manipulation is the easiest when market participants are few and far between, hence the 14 handle move off 1176 up to 1190 on some interesting volume spikes in the wee hours of the the morning. They appeared to be related to the dollar, though metals really did not move around to much.

As for today we had a standard trending up day with a choppy thin trade with the volume tapering to nearly

Home Sales Down, Market Straight UP (XHB)

Happy per turkey day ramp up... things are just peachy... The October median new home price of $194,000.. lowest in years and years.. actually late 2007!... thought the market is up 1.32$ up 15 handles jsut about retracting yesterdays almost 20 handle down move.. its up to the own games no follow through on a trend you go down we go right back up.... Its a traders market if you have any money left that is.


The DATA:

U.S. Commerce Dept releases October New Home Sales on November 24 at 10 am
New Home Sales M/M for October: Prior: 307K; Consensus: 314K; Consensus Range: 300K to 335K 



Also: 
Whole Foods notified that IRS will audit FY07 and FY08 results
Whole Foods said in a regulatory filing it has been notified that the IRS will open an audit covering FY07 and FY08. 


Cleveland Cliffs is doing well as well today.... 

SAP AG Ordered to Pay Oracle 1.3 Billion Dollars (SAP)

OUCH.. not good... Maybe Ellison might scale up his America's Cups conquests... eh i doubt it, he has lots of cash... Anyway the WSJ is reporting:

"A federal jury has ruled that SAP AG (SAP) must pay Oracle (ORCL) $1.3B in damages due to copyright infringement, according to the Wall Street Journal. The judgment marks the end of the suit which was originally filed in 2007."

SO watch SAP downside tomorrow morning... Among other things such as Janus .. and maybe SAC capitals TOP holdings ..

"The Turkey Day Ramp" Late Night S&P500 Update (SPX)

As you can see the turkey day ramp is in full swing. WE had a massive bid off 1175.75 taking the ES_F non stop on extremely light globex volume up 10 handles to the 1185 "kiss" before tailing back a bit.. I was not surprised with a bit of a futures rebound after the decent down day we had today off 20 handles. BUT SHIT today was noting compared to the 3 and 4% down days we have seen once they really roll this piece of shit.. Granted we may move higher tomorrow, though our thesis here has been this parabolic move to the upside the past two months has just been totally overdone and we needed a pullback, this is it. Over 50 handles in a week or so is pretty good, though i would like to see even more downside testing the 1100 level again.

As for the levels in play today 1194 overnight was the last push to grab stops before they slammed the ES_F to the 1186 level on volume, we bounced only to have the bears roar back to 1186. I tweeted if we break 1186s we are going down hard.. what happened we traded nearly straight to 1174.75 by the time  mid

"Riding The Bands" Bollinger Update (SPX)

Take a look a the chart above you can really see how the bands really play into a market where we have extended trends and violent pullbacks. Today is one of the largest down days we have had two months. off nearly 20 handles. We had quite a bit of dollar strength as well today which leads me to believe there was true fear in the market over the Korea crisis and the pending Irish debacle.... The way which gold futures stayed bid

SAC capital Subpoenaed On Their Holdings (SAC Capital)

The elusive prince of the the hedge industry seems to be under the radar of the Feds as they are looking to get a hold of his top 100 holdings... I greatly respect this guy and would love to work for his fund........ Finding information regarding his holdings is not actually that hard considering you have access to the right data services through your employer probably on wall street which serve the hedge fund industry you can find out very easily...

(From Wall Street Pit) SAC Capital Advisors LP told investors in a letter that it got a government subpoena, according to a person who received the update from the hedge fund firm. The subpoena does not focus on particular individual securities, sectors or strategies.

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule (POMO)

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $105 billion. This represents $75 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $30 billion of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-November and mid-December. OPERATION DATE1 SETTLEMENT DATE OPERATION TYPE2 MATURITY RANGE EXPECTED PURCHASE SIZE November 12, 2010 November 15, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2014 – 4/30/2016 $6 - $8 billion November 15, 2010 November 16, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 5/31/2016 – 11/15/2017 $7 - $9 billion November 16, 2010 November 17, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 5/31/2012 – 5/15/2013 $4 - $6 billion November 17, 2010 November 18, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2018 – 11/15/2020 $7 - $9 billion November 18, 2010 November 19, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 5/31/2013 – 11/15/2014 $6 - $8 billion November 19, 2010 November 22, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 8/15/2028 – 11/15/2040 $1.5 - $2.5 billion November 22, 2010 November 23, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2018 – 11/15/2020 $7 - $9 billion November 23, 2010 November 24, 2010 Outright TIPS Purchase 7/15/2012 – 2/15/2040 $1 - $2 billion November 29, 2010 November 30, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2021 – 11/15/2027 $1.5- $2.5 billion November 29, 20103 November 30, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 5/31/2013 – 11/15/2014 $6 - $8 billion November 30, 2010 December 1, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 12/31/2014 – 5/31/2016 $6 - $8 billion December 1, 2010 December 2, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 6/30/2016 – 11/30/2017 $7 - $9 billion December 2, 2010 December 3, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2018 – 11/15/2020 $7 - $9 billion December 3, 2010 December 6, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 6/15/2013 – 11/30/2014 $6 - $8 billion December 6, 2010 December 7, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 8/15/2028 – 11/15/2040 $1.5 - $2.5 billion December 7, 2010 December 8, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 12/31/2014 – 5/31/2016 $6 - $8 billion December 8, 2010 December 9, 2010 Outright TIPS Purchase 7/15/2012 – 2/15/2040 $1 - $2 billion December 9, 2010 December 10, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 6/30/2016 – 11/30/2017 $7 - $9 billion The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on December 10, 2010. This release will also include information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above. ______________________________ This is sourced directly from the NY Fed website