Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
This week as most of you know may not know is a shortened week with the market closed on Friday. Weeks like this especially in the summer bring very low volume, BUT on the contrary you can see wild movement on thin volume. So be aware if you are intra day trading. Another key event everyone should have their eyes on is quarter 2 coming to a close Tuesday. This could bring some interesting action near the close tomorrow in accordance with the window dressing theory. Notice today the VIX got crushed after its initial opening prints, this coincides with the window dressing, im sure the vix will get crushed at the close tomorrow, only to pop Wednesday when the fund start dumping all the overbot names they snapped up late in the quarter so they look "smart", ie they have the names on the books so when they report to their clients they will look like they had all the winners on. AAha! Stay on your toes and don't over trade this week as opportunities may be there but volume may not be, you could get stuck especially in options with wide markets like ETFs.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
He is back with a new video, this one is quite interesting as he smashed a toy car to pieces. This guy is gonna be famous as he is cheer leading the death of the green shoots. The green shoots have been sprayed with weed killer as we can all see. The markets today still have selling pressure weak but steady. You can tell the summer is here, low volume nothing really trading. But what is trading is really ripping on the light volume.
Market observations today:
OIL down with the dollar down, normally this is inverse but today is odd. Also the market is down in general with the dollar down.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Bernake is getting grilled currently
Initial jobless claims were up
UNG is popping a bit here
19bil$ set aside for highway funding. Concrete companies and or companies directly connected to the contracts will surely benefit.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The trading action yesterday was very muted and casual. There was not much going on in any of the major markets, this was expected. I say this because after a large down day the following day traders and market participants psychologically are thrown off. Days like these you must lay off and not over trade when opportunities are thin. As for today i think the rally starts on technicals rebounding. This will more than likely continue until Tuesday of next week, followed by steep selling on Wednesday.
If you were following my calls about Apple you noticed the steep sell off, i attribute this to the Steve Job's liver fiasco.
UNG has been selling off nicely. Looking to take profits at this level.
Monday, June 22, 2009
THE SEARCH RESULTS:
Overall Bear Market: 36,300,000
Overall Bull Market: 19,200,000
News headline search only "Bear Market": 9,129
News headline search only "Bull Market": 4,375
Interpret this as you may. Everyone is an individual. Speculation is what drives our markets.
Im speculating the overall sentiment is bearish.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The chart on the left is one of OIH, this is the Oil Service Holders trust ETF which is showing signs of Oil topping. Notice the trend inside the red circles, they show upward thrust of buying followed by a period of volatility, we are entering these waters. The Mideast conflicts on the contrary side of the trade could halt a decline. Its a traders market, keep this on the radar, maybe dip a bit short and look for a momentum trade. IMO.
Oil is falling off, inventories up
The Job's liver story
THe Fed is giving up in the short term
FTC now looking for blogger disclosure on conflicts of interest
Friday, June 19, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Imo Research in Motion has reached as many people as they can given the current market cycle. THis period of time is going to hurt rimm growth, as you can see what happened after hours today. I am expecting a gap down in the AM and maybe a bounce.
MY theory on BLackerry is everyone who wants one has one, everyone who needs one has one. The same thing is going on with the IPhone, everyone who wants one has one, or now will with the cheaper version. Growth is now limited by network obligations.
The latest device i have used is the Storm, it was A POS out of the box. I had to upgrade the software numerous times.. . The long trade is over unless you want to play the downside coming up in July. Hedge Accordingly
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
All i keep hearing about is UNG going to da moon. At the same I'm thinking overbought crowded trade, i am a pessimist.
If you look at the chart UNG has been in a horrendous downtrend that has probably benefited many and confused others.
THe current UNG trend is a good example of a security which can remain oversold for months. We had a pop beginning of MAY have subsequently been coiling up on an uncertain trade. From what i understand about the current situation regards Nat gas supply/demand forces there is plenty of supply both in the proven ground and in storage.
Like OIL paper chasing is running up this trade, there are two sides to every trade. I take the bearish stance. I could be wrong but that's what trading is about taking managed risk. If you can manage risk you will win. My risk management thoughts in another post.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Short commodities/specifically OIL
As July 1 approaches this trade will become much more clear to understand.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Friday, June 12, 2009
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Oil up along with commodities
89 billion in TARP funds have been approved by the fed to be paid back. Most of the firms paying back tarp have level 2 and 3 assets which still suck.
Some food for though, Kuwait Oil minister seems to be on top of his game. (via GreenSheet)
"You see, the problem is that the market is not moving or responding to fundamentals. It is only sentiments driving the market."
"There is no good price. There is a logical price. Logical is what market forces prevail at that time and for the time being $60 to $70 to $75 per barrel is acceptable."
Granted i think those prices are still overvalued, they are better than 100+.
The greatest short in history could be coming up.. the time is not NOW it appears, lots of strength in the form of program trading. I think when the time comes the interest rate debate heats up we are in for a sentiment change. When everyone starts getting worried again its a big ol' train that gets going... The funds sell into all the upgrades, take profits.. and then become sell side players.
The CHART above is a chart of the vix. I am playing this as a possible breakout... we are in a very large pennant formation. Im looking for the support under 30 to hold, which is the ascending green line. If we do hold we are gonna break out to the upside and July will be interesting. if we break down, we have a long way to fall. ALways have an idea of where the vix is trading.
If you are currently long term bearish on US equities you should consider buying protection on your longs in the form our further out puts on the SPY, or calls in UUP. SInce the vix is down, the volatility variable of the Black-Scholes model is smaller thus making puts cheaper.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Market opened we gapped a bit then traded up 70 points then back down. To me this shows we hit resistance then pulled back under where we are now up about 28. For today i think we will probably close flat, not much volume and or volatility on a nice spring Friday. Where are we gonna top out in job loss you might ask? I'm thinking we will see well over 10% before the numbers start looking better. WE need 200,000 new jobs a month just to keep the number from going lower. I do NOT see this happening in the next year.
BTW Steve jobs is returning to Apple, this could be bullish for apple.. I know there was a lot of talk about it being overvalued... who knows how this trade will play out.. but have Apple on the radar.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
On the other side of the trade, if the dollar keeps collapsing on fears of the US losing its AAA credit rating, like Jeff Friedman(his twitter) thinks so. We are in for some more turbulence.
A bit more evidence...Something interesting happened around mid April. What? The dollar fell off like a rock in an empty pool. Remember dollar lower, oil higher in the current situation hedgeAccordingly... these markets are coupled like it or not in this current environment. they could uncouple it has happened.
Rant:IF OPEC would actually start reporting how much oil is in the ground and real production numbers maybe everyone would realize OPEC is full of shit, then their influence will not matter. OIL demand will be lower in the near future, paper chasers are pushing markets up again. What im saying is i am bearish OIL, demand destruction remains.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
"GM is offering $20,000 cash and a $25,000 car voucher to production workers who decide to retire with their benefits.
For skilled-trades workers, the cash portion of the retirement package is $45,000 with the same car voucher.
For those not eligible to retire, GM also is offering more cash to walk away and sever all ties with the company, along with the $25,000 car voucher.
Employees with less than 10 years could get $45,000. Those with at least 10 years but less than 20 are being offered $80,000. For those with 20 years or more, it’s $115,000.
Those with 28 or 29 years at GM are being offered a bridge to retirement, with the company providing a monthly gross wage of $2,850 or $2,900 until qualifying for retirement."
Sounds good. I am all for helping the layed off workers. But wow.
Monday, June 1, 2009