Sunday, May 31, 2009
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
May 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.
Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.
“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said.
As far as the market goes today, there is quite a bit of volatility going around intra day. We swung from positive to negative to close up over 100 points, blah. No of this daily gyration means anything to me until we break down away from the trend line or break out of the downward channel to the upside. My only trade today was shorting the SPY at its days high, covering for about a .90c profit. Take it, move on.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Thursday, May 21, 2009
If anyone saw this interview between Jeff Macke and Dennis Kneale, wow this guy has gone nuts. If you have not seen it, watch it on the left. I think this guy has either lost mad loot on a shitty trade or he is just FED up with the market going straight up... Im am halfway with him in his thinking, if i am following him correctly. Interesting thing is, he is not on Fast Money right now, CNBC has got them in a grip! For more information check out Clustertock.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
*If you played this as a scalp good work. The SPX chart is a good example of a trend break down. The chart interval is 1 min, if you got short around the 912 level in the SPX, covering around the 902 level you would have made a great trade.
In other news, BOLI or (for those out of the circle is Bank Owned Life Insurance) is being used to help pay bonuses, deferred income & pensions of companies such as Bank of America. Iv learned this is common practice first hand, i was once in the insurance field back in the days of college. During this time i learned BOLI insurance is a sure fire way to make a killer close. The premiums on these policies are huge, like 30k a year, whichever agents gets one of these gets paid around the industry standard, 30-100% of the first year premium, plus residuals. I do not find anything wrong with this practice, i just think everyone should be aware that it does go on, even at your local bank. It helps protect the bank from catastrophic loss of a key person, which would significantly affect the operations of the bank as a going concern.
Target's fiscal first quarter earnings declined 13%, signaling the middle class is being affected by reductions in pay, lay offs and overall spending declines. So much for the value product plays, they only last for so long, everyone runs out of money eventually. Moving over to the global arena, Deere has been affected by the international slowdown in farm & construction equipment spending, OBVIOUSLY related to our NOT improving financial situation. CONTRARY to what CNBC thinks.
The US supports the world, we falter they all falter. Deere's chart correlates well with the commodity chart for corn. I like seeing concrete evidence of true economic slowing like this, what i don't like seeing is an increase in program trading the first weeks of May. This is evidence, like ZeroHedge stated, the markets are being propped up by the fed.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
*My take on the psychology behind the megaphone trading pattern is one that screams indecision in the valuation the companies shares. Whether it be how much revenue they expect in the future and or growth rates, skew and overall market sentiment all factor into various PPS "fair value" models. When a stock makes higher lows and higher highs it is considered up trending, but if it pivots at a clear upper trend line another example here , you have a megaphone shaped bell.
Back to the chart, as you can see the PPS has hesitated and pivoted at the mid line of the channel. Ok great? reason this is interesting is the stock is trading technically well, you know there are others out there playing a chart similar to this, thus you are not in the trade *alone.
Every successful trader must be able to make decisions on his or her own without the input of others. Why? #1 reason being time. If you are stuck in a trade and you have a lot of risk on, you must exit the trade mitigating risk fast, think fast trade fast. You must know break even points before you enter any trade, and know always have a exit strategy. ie. hedge and or puke up the shares and bang out, moving onto another trade. dont dwell, you will miss opportunity.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Take a look at the chart over there, we have a long way to go ladies.
Tomorrow i am looking for a gap down at the open, how far? Depends on the futures & how far they are down pre market. Remember psychology plays a large role in how the market makers will open the stocks.
Oh, and this wont help sentiment, HP's profit sinks 17%.
Friday, May 15, 2009
This looks like it could a pin risk, but if they do exercise it would account for a HUGE increase over the average trading volume. This could for sure affect the share price.
P.S. The futures are up. Why do i bring this up? because i think they are gonna gap the market up tomorrow and close the gap and keep selling into the close.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
*FOLKS anything hitting CNBC, whether it maybe a popular market theory or sentiment, is old news!! Ill admit i have CNBC on when i am trading, but not for stock tips or insightful drivel. I keep it on in CASE some ridiculous news is first broke on CNBC, like the BS news on a takeover of Sprint SK Telecom Merger, i believe it was later summer 2008. This news came out around noon and it sent Sprints stock flying, only to drop back like a rock after Gasparino corrected himself, scammers. Rant over.
Anyway, the reason i bring this up is, do you own due diligence because if you do not you may get stuck holding the bag when the smart money turns this market around. CNBC = wanna be smart money but is always late to the party.
The reason this market is tired comes down to retail trading being shaken out of the market, possibly because people stuck in these 3x bear products havebeen horrificly beaten down in the near term are losing interest. People who are not seasoned traders, or those who have been forced to trade because they are looking to clear up a wash sale are getting worn out with this daily grind. Bids are beginning to lighten up and volume is getting lower, possibly signaling people simply cant sustain they must stop. When this happens the market will fall, the kool-aide drinkers will sell in a cascade.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Friday, May 8, 2009
Also i noticed an interesting trading pattern on the JPM chart. if you look closely it appears to be a inverse descending triangle, with the break out point being 48 pps. hard resistance has formed in this area. I would be willing to guess the medium term target could be that level.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Now i know everyone in this market thinks they are a stock picking genius, but that is only a psychological reaction. Think about it, just about any stock you would have bought in the last month is up and up big. This could cause one to become overconfident, you have thoughts in your mind like, "I have outsmarted the market" "this is so easy" "if i sell now i am gonna miss out".. REMOVE those thoughts from your mind, replacing with "take profits now" "I will regret not selling if this thing tanks" "bear market rallies end with GOOD news". If you understand this you will win. When you think you have the market out smarted the market will let you know you are wrong and ram it right up your ass! Trust me on this one, iv seen it done, and experienced it.
The results of the stress tests have actually been looked at on the street as good news, causing upwards trading action after hours in SPY, and inversely causing SKF FAZ to drop like a rock. FAZ is an ETF which has blown out many traders i am sure. SKF has been a widow maker also, but hell they could be primed for a pop. IF you are looking for some inter sting trading opportunities you could look at some OTM calls in FAZ and SKF for June. The premium in these lines have been crushed. You might think hey it could never happen, but no one thought FAZ would hit 5 bucks from over 100 and no one thought skf would be around 45 bucks from 26o. These are huge trading ranges, if you play your cards right you could capitalize using the leverage of options on these massive swings. Best way to capitalize is using by purchasing some "cheap" OTM calls and or puts if you go with FAS. Hell, some of these far out strikes have trading ranges from .10 - 7 bucks.