Monday, December 21, 2009

Holiday trading.. take foot off THE gas! (aapl)

Holiday trading can present a lot of faux trading opportunities, if looks could kill you would be dead. I say this because lots of stocks may look great on a chart but the reality of the trade is volume is not there to support prices. You got the psychology behind the holidays affecting your trading, you might be more apt to make larger bets if the market "seems" to be performing per your trading plan because you are in a festive mood? But in reality its all an illusion, the futures are painted up in the pre market because of the slim participation causing the cash market to push higher. This is exactly what has happened today, they push the futures up on absolutely crap volume, "Santa Clause rally', gag me. I am just so tired of the charade, let the damn market correct so we can get this show on the road. If this market corrects i will become confident in the US stock market, if it does not i will always remain skeptical. Maybe i feel this way because as soon as i go long something will blow up causing the markets to collapse and im caught holding the bag of shit? This is far fetched but a lot of my colleagues share the same thoughts.


You hear all the news media talking about how UPS and FDX are seeing more packages being shipped, big deal how many jobs have been created? none. How many homes have been sold out of inventory? hardly any. What is Goldman Slacks stock doing? still 15% off highs. You got Gold continually selling, the USD rallying, China lying about the bag of shit they are holding.. Maybe i am forever cursed as a pessimist but i just am not seeing any stars aligning. 2010 has all the making of one of the worst years for trading we have ever seen, 2009 has been THE worst i and many colleagues have ever seen. YES, the market has risen, but who the hell pulled the trigger down there? not me ill admit. Range bound flat trading is brutal, the lack of liquidity and volume adds another element of uncertainty to the trade, if this continues in 2009 you will see even more day traders shut down, this will cause markets to widen and become even more eratic intra day.


PRICE STABILITY = a much more efficient market, without volume you will get bazzar trading. The result of this will be institutions trading with institutions, unless you are a long term buy and hold, "i believe in America" trader, your goose might be cooked.

For my Xmas present i wish for nothing more than a swift market recovery. Per my thoughts on what a market recovery is, there will not be none. If your perception of a recovery is a slow sloping grind up with zero volatility with the whisper of a correction always on your breath worrying you, then you might just have your recovery. If 2010 turns out as a scratch i might take a sabatical, if the trader tax is implimented i will change my citizenship so i can avoid the tax and trade from overseas.


The US is losing its iron grip on the world. OK fine im young, smart and entrepreneural. I gurantee i am not the only one with these thoughts. On a political side note, (i try to keep politics out of my thoughts BUT) if we got all these libs out of the picture we wouldnt be worrying about depression era regulations. Go ahead take all the money earn and pass it out to people who have done nothing to earn my dollars. pshh.. TAXes are never the answer.. maybe some sort of regulation that keeps the boom and bust cycle less dramatic would be enough.