Thursday, May 7, 2009

Stress Test results = Nul Now in overshoot territory

Hello everyone, i am sorry i have been away from quite some time, as hard line Internet issues has plagued me, and i have actually just been fairly hands of in this market do its precariously propped up nature. A lot has happened since i spoke last, the single largest thing being the stress test results being made public. It appears the reaction by the street is Nul and void. I find this disheartening because so many people who have bought this market up and mom and pop. These people do not fully understand the macro cycles of the market and the underlying reasons why we have traded up as fast as we have. IF you find yourself in this category you should strongly consider you are now holding and or buying stocks on greed. Take profits.
Now i know everyone in this market thinks they are a stock picking genius, but that is only a psychological reaction. Think about it, just about any stock you would have bought in the last month is up and up big. This could cause one to become overconfident, you have thoughts in your mind like, "I have outsmarted the market" "this is so easy" "if i sell now i am gonna miss out".. REMOVE those thoughts from your mind, replacing with "take profits now" "I will regret not selling if this thing tanks" "bear market rallies end with GOOD news". If you understand this you will win. When you think you have the market out smarted the market will let you know you are wrong and ram it right up your ass! Trust me on this one, iv seen it done, and experienced it.
The results of the stress tests have actually been looked at on the street as good news, causing upwards trading action after hours in SPY, and inversely causing SKF FAZ to drop like a rock. FAZ is an ETF which has blown out many traders i am sure. SKF has been a widow maker also, but hell they could be primed for a pop. IF you are looking for some inter sting trading opportunities you could look at some OTM calls in FAZ and SKF for June. The premium in these lines have been crushed. You might think hey it could never happen, but no one thought FAZ would hit 5 bucks from over 100 and no one thought skf would be around 45 bucks from 26o. These are huge trading ranges, if you play your cards right you could capitalize using the leverage of options on these massive swings. Best way to capitalize is using by purchasing some "cheap" OTM calls and or puts if you go with FAS. Hell, some of these far out strikes have trading ranges from .10 - 7 bucks.

0 comments: