Today’s decline of 1% started with the leaked ADP figure followed up by a miss, then a ISM miss. This compounded itself into a 1.25% drop into 1544 before it was all said and done. Currently the ES is sitting over 1545 support at 1548.50 which puts 1550 as resistance and 1545 support.. Draw a channel.. break up or down that is your trade direction.
A break up over 145’20 in ZB will likely be cause for further de-risking, especially if the euro gives up its gains from today’s european session. 145’15 is current resistance in ZB.
5 min ES
1565 has to be remounted before any type of rebound can occur, also the 30 year would likely need to fall below 145 to push ES higher in face of bad data. What was on-point today was the declining dollar as the industrial data we talked about last night came in soft; dollar reacted accordingly falling to 82.77.
5 min CL
Despite the falling dollar crude oil, gold, silver and copper saw steep declines, this could be the beginning of a large more in my opinion as last spring we saw a swift and deep commodity correction.
Crude oil is still well positioned over the 90 level but with today’s decline of two points, another day of declines will become self fulfilling prophecy’s as there have been a much publicized drop in demand for crude.
Currently crude is trading for 94.53 with 94.20 being the line ins and before we move into 94, two week ago levels. If the DX remains quiet and bonds flow is not as brisk into the night CL stands a chance of pinching back over the 95 level which would press late afternoon shorts into floor close who have not covered.
30 min CL
As type this gold has made a new low of 1546.10 after the 1560 level held as resistance a few hours ago. this drop coincided with the DX making highs of 82.92… The 83 level is magnetic…. remember the 1545.80 level in GC is the line in sand.. and if it fails you can bet 1500 will come up very quickly probably within hours. .
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