TFP market summary for Thursday February 14, 2013

15 min ES_F 

The market gods provided you with a interesting session for this commercial holiday of V-day. What made today interesting?

The fact we had bonds dollar equities and crude all higher on the session, the SPX closed on a new 5 year high of 1521.38.
ES settled around 1518 after trading into 1520.75. 1522 is the 2013 high.


Absent from today? a crush of equities despite a nearly 1% move in bonds up from their early Thursday morning lows.

ZB 15 min 

The fed is doing their dance in a non-sterilized fashion, ie doing outright purchases of bonds on the open market which explains the nonstop strength in in the med-long bonds throughout the entire session up into the 30 year auction and after.

Currently the spooz is offered with support @ 1516.50, though we have a strengthening YEH pushing down on risk... specifically metals precious and non precious... 1631 is GC line in sand... under its 1622

4 hour GC .. note the white box

I am not a PM so really bonds are just a tool in my contextual toolbox, the moves are so large in bonds without a account the size of ben bernanke's you cannot hold a positive of any size without fear of waking up to a margin call the size of the UUS Ronald Reagan.

As for tomorrow.. if yen keeps rising and the 30 year moves back of 143'21 equities will *likely fall back to 1510 which was support this morning. Under 10's its 5's then double zero's then 1490.25 ...

Under 1490.25 we correct to 78's. Things will get live real quick. The froth this past two weeks has been absurd.

Posted in: japanese yen,SPOOZ,TFP letter