Thursday, September 16, 2010

What Happens When The Boomer's Cash Out? (JNS)

The boomer's cashing in their retirements is a real issue which is coming closer to reality. I am not a boomer, thus i will not speak for all 77 million of them. Though i would like to bring up the issue of what might happen when baby boomer's finally pull out of this market.  Especially considering this statistic from ThirdAge, "Baby Boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power".

Over the past three years as the economy got rocky and toppy i have been casually polling baby boomer's around me about their retirement. The general theme of the results was that of impatience. The boomer's simply do not have time on their side, they cannot afford to speculate any longer. Their impatience bought on by current political/fiscal uncertainty and of course the stock market's games. These games are best described by ZeroHedge as..
"A little HFT, a little subpennying, a little Flash trading, a little DMA trading, a little quote stuffing, a little hedge fund clubbing, a little specialist front running, a little daily flash crash in big caps like Nucor Steel, and you can see why next week we will most certainly have our first inflow in 20 weeks."
I am willing to bet many boomer's are kept up at night worrying they will never be able to retire. As a result not about to risk 30 years of savings in this stock market given its current state.


Perhaps the boomer's are the ones fleeing from mutual funds like rats? The latest ICI data shows for the


month of September, mutual funds saw outflows of over $10 billion. Keep in mind September is only half over. Hell even Bob Pisani is catching onto the fact the markets are being "ramped".

The main stream media seems to be taking its cues from the "dumb money" once again.

If the boomer's are not the ones withdrawing the majority of funds the past 20 weeks, who is it? It doesn't even matter. What does matter is this is just the tip of the iceberg, when the boomer's finally say, "F&ck it"; i hope inflation has not already pushed the price of a subway sandwich to over 10 bucks. Bernake maybe trying to help the boomer's, in some ass-backward way of thinking; by juicing the stock market so 50 million IRA's have a chance to exit this market when it still has a bid. So what will happen? Perhaps Japan is somewhere we should turn for a case study. They have a declining population, a nearly stagnant stock market and interest rates lower then they were in 1880. Study the below chart