I believe some of the best macro/correlation trades are ones which seems so obvious yet hard to pull the trigger on. I was talking with a buddy of mine today, whom i will credit with allowing me to think outside the box on this topic. Ready for the trade?Ok. So we all know the "swine" as it is known on the street is causing a ruckus among US citizens. The swine bombs timing is not good for retailers whom are being hit with consumer spending retraction. If combined with the apprehension of people not wanting to be around large groups for fear of contracting the "swine" retailers will take a double hit. The trade, long Amazon on the premise social retraction will force people to do their shopping from the comfort of home. With the Zappos acquisition, Amazon is a one stop shop for just about anything you would want to gift this season.
The second aspect of this trade, which could hurt both AMZN and brick & mortar is the non-extension of unemployment benefits. If this happens the trade is short retail long dollar as 500 million a week will not be pumped into the economy through spending of unemployment benefits. IF the benefits are extended then amazon will be the trade i look to for a longer term hold. Food for thought.
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