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Monday, June 1, 2009

Irrational exuberance you say? GM goes BK no one cares

Traders took hold of GM today and whipped it around like a ragdoll.. NO reason in hell for a BK company's shares, basically deemed worthless to be UP on the day AT anypoint. Per what i said yesterday, GM's bankruptcy appears to have been baked into the PPS. I have a hinkling the run up today was some institutional short covering. Whatever the case may be, today was historic. Though the market is exhibiting symptoms of a sickness, myself and others will refer to as irrational exuberance, I am still bearish.

A few bullish indicators earlier today were released, still only shows the decline MAY be slowing down. NOthing has reversed. THe key issue which remains is real estate. I see no reason to think the worst is over until we see housing bottom, and the beginning signs of price recovery. Then AMerica can place a true value on homes which they understand and are comfortable with. Not until then will the middle class become trusting of the financial system as a whole. Fear is removed, people will start spending again, people will start hiring the ball will get rolling. This hasnt happend yet. Hedge accordingly.

CHART: SPX


As most of you can tell we have broken out and are now approaching longerterm resistance, but we could run up a bit from here. IF you notice we are approaching overbought again. We have yet to reach a neutral or oversold conditions for months.
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