Wednesday, June 17, 2009

The Crowded Natural Gas Trade (UNG)

Update november 2011.. post R/S still trading below 10 bucks..








All i keep hearing about is UNG going to da moon. At the same I'm thinking overbought crowded trade, i am a pessimist.

If you look at the chart UNG has been in a horrendous downtrend that has probably benefited many and confused others.

THe current UNG trend is a good example of a security which can remain oversold for months. We had a pop beginning of MAY have subsequently been coiling up on an uncertain trade. From what i understand about the current situation regards Nat gas supply/demand forces there is plenty of supply both in the proven ground and in storage.

Like OIL paper chasing is running up this trade, there are two sides to every trade. I take the bearish stance. I could be wrong but that's what trading is about taking managed risk. If you can manage risk you will win. My risk management thoughts in another post.